The Five Star Movement (M5S) secured a clearcut victory in Italy’s parliamentary elections, winning more than 30% of the vote nationwide and cementing its position as the single most popular political force in Italy. Meanwhile, the mainstream centre-left and centre-right political parties tanked: Matteo Renzi’s Democratic party only garnered 19% of the vote, while Silvio Berlusconi’s Forza Italia scored a meagre 14%.
Coalition politics, however, stands in the way of a Five Star government. Berlusconi can count on the support of several rightwing parties, most prominently the anti-immigrant and anti-EU League, which received 18% of the vote. All together the four parties forming the rightwing coalition obtained 36%. The road ahead remains uncertain and the spectre of a hung parliament now looms over Italy.
What we know for sure is that the new parliament will hold its first session on 23 March. After the election of the presidents of the two chambers of parliament, “consultations” for the formation of a new government will formally begin. Following customary procedure, the Italian president, Sergio Mattarella, will then bestow an “exploratory” appointment upon a prime minister-designate, who will in turn present a proposed list of cabinet appointments. The chambers of parliament will vote upon the cabinet as a whole. In both chambers, a majority is required.
For the time being it is still unclear whether Mattarella will task Five Star’s Luigi Di Maio with forming a new government. However, given that the Five Star Movement received almost a third of all votes and is by far the single most popular political force in Italy, any other choice would be undemocratic and would most likely undermine any prospect for economic or political renewal.
The movement was born in 2009 out of popular anger and disillusionment with the established political parties, and today it may represent Italy’s best chance to curb decades of corruption and waste in the public sector and deliver much-needed economic reforms. Far from advocating an exit from the eurozone, the movement calls for greater cooperation with Brussels to address common challenges to the EU, from the migrant and refugee crisis to the phasing out of fossil fuels and the development of renewable energy.
The Five Star Movement has also been deeply misunderstood, at home and abroad, partly as a result of biased media coverage in Italy. In its last report, Freedom House ranked Italy as only “partly free” in terms of freedom of the press, lamenting the “heavy concentration of media ownership” – a clear reference to Berlusconi’s media empire – and “political influence on the public broadcaster” (the centre-left has traditionally dominated public television channels). Thus, on the national media scene the Five Star Movement has been constantly under attack. The international press should not fall for the often misleading and partisan coverage of Italian politics that dominates domestic media sources.
Meanwhile, the rightwing coalition, which used to function under the strict hegemony of Berlusconi, is bound to be plagued by internal rivalries. Indeed, the 81-year-old is now dependent on the electoral strength of the League, which for the first time in its history has emerged as the strongest party within the coalition.
Berlusconi and his allies have already governed Italy three times in the past two decades, most recently from 2008 to 2011. When in power, his governments failed to reduce political waste and mismanagement, and were ultimately unable to kickstart the Italian economy. There is little hope that this time would be any different. In fact, it could be worse, given that the right as a whole is today hostage to the League, whose aggressive anti-immigrant leader, Matteo Salvini, is angling for greater influence.
The Italian president should have no doubt when deciding who should form the next government. The Five Star Movement not only received more votes than any other political force, it also represents a more promising, dependable and reasonable choice than Berlusconi’s shaky coalition.