Russian President Vladimir Putin's televised meeting with pro-war bloggers this week may hint at increasing pressure on the Kremlin as Moscow's troops fight to hold occupied Ukraine and subdue rebel raids into Russian territory, according to the latest Institute for the Study of War analysis.
At the open Kremlin meeting on Tuesday, Putin responded to concerns about pro-Ukrainian rebel incursions into Russia by hinting at a new demilitarized buffer zone in Ukraine. The president also said that Ukraine's ongoing counteroffensive operations were being defeated with heavy casualties inflicted on Kyiv's units.
But for all the characteristic bravado, the ISW think tank said that the open meeting may be a sign that Putin recognizes the challenges of waging a large-scale, open-ended war with a strategy hinging on the collapse of Western support for Ukraine.
"Putin aimed to assuage widespread discontent in the Russian information space about limited cross-border raids by pro-Ukraine forces into Belgorod Oblast, drone strikes across Russia, and border security in general," the ISW bulletin read.
ISW noted the president's suggestion of a new buffer zone inside Ukraine to stop cross-frontier attacks. Putin did, however, also say that the government would not look to implement such a cordon sanitaire [guarded line] imminently.
Putin appears caught between a full response to rebel raids into Belgorod and the need to retain forces along the front line in Ukraine where Russian troops are now resisting Kyiv's long-awaited counteroffensive.
The agitation in Belgorod undermines Putin's security-first image, but a collapse of defensive lines in Ukraine could precipitate a strategic defeat there.
The ISW noted that the fighting in Belgorod has become "a notable focal point for criticism against the Russian military leadership, and Putin is likely attempting to address critiques that he has ignored the situation there in order to insulate himself from further criticism."
Putin's public engagement with influential military bloggers may be an effort "to further leverage the community to expand his support among Russian ultranationalists," ISW wrote, noting a previous closed-door meeting with bloggers in June.
In Ukraine, Putin's engagement with hawkish military bloggers is interpreted as "a sign of weakness," Oleksandr Merezhko told Newsweek. He is a member of the Ukrainian parliament and chair of the body's foreign affairs committee.
"The official propagandistic machine has lost credibility in the eyes of the Russian population, and Putin needs to look for other channels of communication with the population."
"The Kremlin has protected Russian milbloggers from criticism and calls for censorship and has rewarded select milbloggers with official positions to co-opt their audience and gain access to their close ties to prominent nationalist and pro-war groups," the bulletin added.
"Putin's highly publicized meeting with the milbloggers is reflective of the Kremlin's promotion of this group in the previous year and suggests that Putin intends to further elevate their standing. Putin is likely setting information conditions to prevent potential lines of attack against the Kremlin in the event of Russian failure," the ISW wrote.
"Putin may also be increasingly aware that committed pro-war figures are his key constituency as he calls on the Russian public to prepare for a protracted war in Ukraine."
"The Kremlin is likely aware that key pro-war figures will be crucial to rallying the rest of society to that effort, and Putin's engagement with these milbloggers may suggest that the Kremlin will increasingly rely on the wider ultranationalist community to maintain support for the war effort," the think tank's statement added.
There appears little sign of Putin and his hawkish allies seeking an off-ramp after 16 months of fighting in Ukraine. In this time, Russian forces have been forced to downgrade battlefield goals and surrender significant territory.
Though invading Russian troops have been able to achieve some key pre-operation aims, there is significant frustration among ultranationalist pro-war political and media elites at Moscow's lack of success.
Igor Girkin is a former Federal Security Service (FSB) officer who was instrumental in Russia's seizure of parts of Ukraine's Donbas region in 2014. He wrote on Telegram that Putin's military-blogger meeting was a "shock," adding that it showed "that the president has absolutely no control over the situation at the front."
Newsweek has contacted the Russian Defense Ministry by email to request comment.
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