Government Shutdown

Trump’s Self-Imposed Shutdown Crisis Is Just the Beginning

Republicans are tiring of the border wall fight, voters are blaming the White House, and Nancy Pelosi smells blood in the water.
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Pelosi speaks to the press in the Capitol Visitor Center on December 13, 2018.By Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call.

It appears the standoff over the government shutdown will continue into 2019, after Republicans punted Donald Trump’s demand for border wall funding until after Democrats have taken over the House. “We have not been able to reach agreement, with regards to the leadership on both sides,” Senator Pat Roberts said Thursday after the Senate reconvened for four minutes—just long enough for Republicans to formalize their surrender. House Republicans were equally feckless, with Republican leadership refusing to recognize Democratic Rep. Jim McGovern as he attempted to bring a stopgap bill to a vote on the floor. “At this point, it looks like we could be in for a very long-term shutdown,” Rep. Mark Meadows, one of Trump’s closest allies on Capitol Hill, told CNN.

It was a predictable end to the year for the Republican-led 115th Congress, which has proved ineffectual at resolving the border wall funding battle that Trump conjured up just before the holidays. Less than two weeks ago—ages ago in Trump time—the president seemed poised to cave to Chuck Schumer and Nancy Pelosi over his “big, beautiful wall,” and willing to sign the funding measure Paul Ryan and Mitch McConnell tried to “soothe” him into. But after feeling the pressure from his far-right base, the president abruptly changed course, torpedoing the legislation and vowing not to sign any bill that didn’t include $5 billion for the border wall he had originally promised Mexico would pay for.

Nothing has seemed to change since then. Trump has continued to dig in his heels, even as he appears to eschew negotiations in favor of crazed Twitter tirades against Democrats. “This is only about the Dems not letting Donald Trump & the Republicans have a win,” the president tweeted Thursday evening. Yet Democrats have only become more resolute in the face of Trump’s tantrums, which included a threat Friday to “close the Southern Border entirely” if he doesn’t get his way. They’re expected to quickly hold a vote on a measure to fund the government after taking control of the House on January 2; none of the three options they’re currently considering include money for Trump’s wall. (On Friday, Trump reportedly made a final offer to Democrats: $2.5 billion for the wall, half his original asking price. It was not accepted.)

Trump, who retains his veto power, and Pelosi, who becomes House Speaker on January 3, both seem to think they will have the upper hand—or at least they are acting like it. White House advisers claim to be gleeful that the shutdown crisis will delay Pelosi’s policy priorities and keep the debate focused on Trump’s agenda. Democrats, on the other hand, see the border issue as a loser—polls show about a third of Americans support building a wall—that will bleed the president’s support with moderates and breed resentment over his amateurish handling of the shutdown.

It’s not clear what will happen if or when Democrats pass a funding bill in the House. The Senate remains in G.O.P. hands, but McConnell will eventually tire of keeping the government closed on Trump’s account. The Senate could perhaps allow a vote to be filibustered, or Trump could threaten a veto, giving the White House an opportunity to make its point, save face, and move on. But it is hard to see how Trump walks away without sustaining some political damage. The president famously declared that he would take the blame for a government shutdown—and the majority of voters agree. Democrats, meanwhile, are eager to draw a distinction between themselves and Trump. “We will vote swiftly to reopen government and show that Democrats will govern responsibly in stark contrast to this chaotic White House,” Pelosi, the incoming House speaker, said Thursday.

That could put even more pressure on Trump, who appears increasingly isolated in Washington, even among members of his own party, who have grown frustrated with the president’s erratic behavior. The impact of the partial shutdown, which is affecting about 800,000 federal employees, is likely to be more sharply felt in the coming days. And it seems unlikely Trump will be able to wash his hands of the impasse and pin it on Democrats, as he has attempted to do in his Twitter tirades, considering he already took ownership of it during a televised meeting with Pelosi, Schumer, and a silent Mike Pence before the shutdown began.

Trump, then, will likely enter 2019 with a shutdown on his hands, a newly powerful Democratic majority checking his power, a Republican party that may finally be tiring of his act, and a host of investigations creeping closer. The past few weeks have been perhaps the most chaotic of his presidency. But the new year could make all that look tame by comparison.