There has been intense activity over the past two weeks in Robert Mueller’s investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 US election and possible collusion by members of Donald Trump’s campaign team.
Developments in the criminal prosecutions of three of Trump’s most important former advisers have enraged the president and shed new light on what Mueller has learned in the 19 months since his appointment as special counsel.
Here, the Guardian reviews the key updates in the cases of Michael Cohen, Michael Flynn and Paul Manafort – and explores what the new disclosures could mean for Trump as the inquiry continues.
Michael Cohen
Developments Federal prosecutors in New York said on Friday that Cohen, Trump’s former lawyer and legal fixer, should receive a four-year prison sentence for a series of crimes he has admitted.
Cohen last week pleaded guilty to lying to Congress about Trump’s plans for a tower in Russia, admitting the project continued well into Trump’s campaign for the presidency. He previously admitted violating campaign finance laws by arranging payoffs to buy the silence of two women who said they had affairs with Trump. He also confessed to crimes relating to his personal finances.
What we’ve learned Prosecutors said Trump directed Cohen to make the illegal payoffs to women, indicating the Justice Department has supporting evidence for an allegation first made by Cohen in August.
Mueller revealed that Cohen repeatedly sought Russian government support for a Trump Tower Moscow on behalf of his boss. He entered discussions in November 2015 with a Russian offering “political synergy” from the Kremlin in business and politics. He later spoke with a Kremlin official.
Cohen disclosed previously unknown contacts with White House officials in 2017-18, according to Mueller, and recalled “preparing and circulating” his responses to congressional investigators, hinting that others were complicit in false statements he made in those responses.
Mueller told a judge in New York that Cohen also gave information on other “core” Russia-related issues in Mueller’s inquiry into any collusion between Trump’s campaign and Russia.
What it means for Trump The president has been implicated in two felonies – a dire situation for the White House. Prosecutors have not yet said whether they believe Trump showed the criminal intent required for a prosecution.
Trump also misled the public in 2016 by saying he had no business links to Russia. Cohen said he had briefed Trump and his family extensively on the project. Trump, his son Donald Jr and son-in-law Jared Kushner could face serious problems if their own answers to Mueller and Congress contradict this.
And Mueller even appears confident he has evidence linking the Trump Organization and its senior executives – three of whom were Trump’s eldest children – to Russian interference in the 2016 election. This would be catastrophic for the president.
Michael Flynn
Developments Mueller told a judge in Washington that Trump’s former national security adviser and campaign aide should receive a light sentence including no prison time. Flynn pleaded guilty last year to lying to the FBI. He gave false accounts of telephone calls in December 2016 with Russia’s ambassador about sanctions imposed on Moscow by Barack Obama, and a United Nations vote on Israel.
What we’ve learned Flynn has given “substantial assistance” to the Trump-Russia investigation, Mueller said in a court filing. He has given 19 interviews, handed over documents and offered first-hand accounts of “interactions between individuals in the presidential transition team and Russia” following the 2016 election. Mueller said Flynn’s help was particularly valuable “because he was one of the few people with long-term and first-hand insight” of the matters being investigated.
What it means for Trump: Flynn will have told Mueller whether Trump issued the order for him to urge Russia not to retaliate against US sanctions. Trump may have broken the law by doing so as he was not yet president. Flynn reportedly told Mueller that Kushner told him to ask Russia to vote “no” at the UN. Kushner possibly broke the law by doing so. Further details of what Flynn has disclosed about Russia, which were kept secret in this week’s filing by Mueller, may also imperil Trump.
Paul Manafort
Developments Manafort, Trump’s former campaign chairman, told five “principal lies” to Mueller’s investigators even after agreeing to cooperate with their inquiry. Last week, Mueller tore up a plea deal with Manafort and told a judge he should soon be sentenced for crimes that could see him spend the rest of his life in prison.
What we’ve learned Manafort was in contact with the White House as recently as May 2018, despite his denials of such contacts. He also lied about his interactions with Konstantin Kilimnik, a Russian former business partner who is alleged to have links to Russian intelligence, Mueller said. And he gave false statements about information linked to a separate investigation.
What it means for Trump Whether Manafort’s ties to pro-Kremlin figures in eastern Europe are connected to Russia’s interference in the 2016 election remains the central unanswered question in the Trump-Russia investigation. Mueller on Friday redacted several paragraphs in his filing about Manafort’s interactions with Kilimnik, indicating they may relate to the presidential campaign.
Any finding by Mueller that Trump’s campaign chief was complicit in Moscow’s efforts to sway the election to Trump could be devastating for the president.
A discovery that Manafort was discussing a possible pardon from Trump in 2018 could lead to further allegations that Trump obstructed justice. Manafort’s convictions on other crimes so far relate to his private business and tax affairs, with no direct connection to Trump.