Why Russia is foolish not to invite NATO observers to its war games

NEXT month Russia will hold what is expected to be the biggest military exercise in Europe since the end of the cold war. According to NATO estimates, it will involve at least 100,000 troops (see article). Revived from Soviet times by Vladimir Putin, Russia’s president, the Zapad (West) drills, as they are known, take place every four years. Although the Kremlin insists that the scenarios it is playing out are purely defensive, that is not always how they have looked to its neighbours. Countries that have borders with Russia or Belarus, the operational focus of Zapad 2017, are especially worried.

The climax of Zapad 2009 was a dummy nuclear strike on Warsaw, which rather stretches the meaning of “defensive”. Zapad 2013 was less overtly aggressive, but much of the new equipment Russia tested and the tactical techniques it practised were put to use barely six months later when it annexed Crimea and launched a covert invasion of eastern Ukraine. The attack on Ukraine itself started out as a “snap” military drill which gave cover for Russia’s real intentions. Mr Putin had used the same ruse in the invasion of Georgia in 2008.

The secrecy that cloaks Russian military exercises only makes them more threatening. Mr Putin is ignoring calls for greater transparency from the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), a body with 57 member countries whose functions include trying to reduce the risk of accidental conflict. Under the terms of its Vienna Document, to which Russia is a signatory, countries carrying out drills with more than 9,000 troops must provide advance notice. If they hold an exercise deploying more than 13,000 troops, they must also invite other OSCE countries to send observers.

The reason for these rules is simple. Observers from the other side make it harder for countries to use military exercises as the springboard for a surprise attack. They also lower the chances that anyone will mistake a harmless exercise for the real thing. Russia flouts the rules by pretending that its exercises are much smaller than they are, while insisting on its right to observe NATO war games.

This behaviour is part of a pattern. There has been a recent increase in the activity of Russian aircraft along NATO’s border. In both 2014 and 2015, NATO fighters were scrambled more than 400 times to meet Russian aircraft—70% more than in 2013. Last year the figure jumped to 800 (although part of the increase was on Turkey’s border with Syria). This year it could be higher still. Far too often, Russian pilots fly without their transponders on, meaning that they cannot easily be identified. They also buzz NATO aircraft and ships, risking collisions.

Russia’s behaviour has consequences. Since Mr Putin’s aggression against Ukraine, NATO has felt the need to protect itself by sending multinational battalions to defend the Baltic States and Poland; creating a “spearhead” force that is kept ready for battle; and resuming large-scale exercises of its own, though they are much smaller than the Russian ones and conducted under OSCE guidelines.

Behaving badly

Russia says that it does not deserve to be treated with such suspicion. Yet it is largely to blame. It could invite Western observers to Zapad 2017. It could also seek better military-to-military contacts with NATO. These relationships, which NATO is eager to forge, can lower the risk of miscalculation when normal diplomacy is strained. If, on the other hand, Russia’s intention is indeed to intimidate and bully, NATO will have no choice but to prepare for the worst.